Genome-wide association study between SARS-CoV-2 single nucleotide polymorphisms and virus copies during infections (preprint)

Variations in viral loads generated during SARS-CoV-2 infections can influence COVID-19 disease progression and the likelihood of onward transmission. However, the host and virus factors that may impact viral loads and infection dynamics are not fully understood. Here, we conducted virus whole genome sequencing and measured viral copies using RT-qPCR from 9,902 SARS-CoV-2 infections over a 2-year period to examine the relative impact of host factors and virus genetic variation on changes in viral copies. We first used statistical regression models to show that host age and SARS-CoV-2 variant significantly impact viral copies, but vaccination status does not. Then, using a genome-wide association study (GWAS) approach, we identified multiple nucleotide substitutions corresponding to amino acid changes in the SARS-CoV-2 genome associated with variations in viral copies. In particular, we analyzed the temporal patterns and found that SNPs associated with higher viral copies were predominantly observed in Omicron BA.2/BA.4/BA.5/XBB infections, whereas those associated with decreased viral copies were mostly observed in infections with Delta and Omicron BA.1 variants. Our work showcases how GWAS can be a useful tool for probing phenotypes related to SNPs in viral genomes, which can be used to characterize emerging variants and monitor therapeutic interventions.

Escalating combinations of enhanced infectivity and immune escape define SARS-CoV-2 Omicron lineage replacement (preprint)

In 2022, consecutive sweeps of the highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 Omicron-family maintained high viral transmission levels despite extensive antigen exposure on the population level resulting from both vaccinations and infections. To better understand variant fitness in the context of the highly dynamic immunity landscape of 2022, we aimed to dissect the interplay between immunity and fitness advantages of emerging SARS-CoV-2 Omicron lineages on the population-level. We evaluated the relative contribution of higher intrinsic transmissibility or immune escape on the fitness of emerging lineages by analyzing data collected through our local genomic surveillance program from Connecticut, USA. We compared growth rates, estimated infections, effective reproductive rates, average viral copy numbers, and likelihood for causing vaccine break-through infections. Using these population-level data, we find that newly emerging Omicron lineages reach dominance through a specific combination of enhanced intrinsic transmissibility and immune escape that varies over time depending on the state of the host-population. Using similar frameworks that integrate whole genome sequencing together with clinical, laboratory, and epidemiological data can advance our knowledge on host-pathogen dynamics in the post-emergence phase that can be applied to other communicable diseases beyond SARS-CoV-2.

Combining genomic data and infection estimates to characterize the complex dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variants in the United States (preprint)

SARS-CoV-2 Omicron surged as a variant of concern (VOC) in late 2021. Subsequently, several distinct Omicron variants have appeared and overtaken each other. We combined variant frequencies from GISAID and infection estimates from a nowcasting model for each US state to estimate variant-specific infections, attack rates, and effective reproduction numbers (Rt). BA.1 rapidly emerged, and we estimate that it infected 47.7% of the US population between late 2021 and early 2022 before it was replaced by BA.2. We estimate that BA.5, despite a slower takeoff than BA.1, also infected 35.7% of the US population, persisting in circulation for nearly 6 months. Other Omicron variants - BA.2, BA.4, or XBB - infected 30.7% of the US population. We found a positive correlation between the state-level BA.1 attack rate and social vulnerability. Our findings reveal the complex interplay between viral evolution, population susceptibility, and social factors since Omicron emerged in the US. One-Sentence SummaryFor each US state, we estimate Omicron variant-specific infections, attack rates, and effective reproduction numbers.

Survey of white-footed mice in Connecticut, USA reveals low SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and infection with divergent betacoronaviruses (preprint)

Diverse mammalian species display susceptibility to and infection with SARS-CoV-2. Potential SARS-CoV-2 spillback into rodents is understudied despite their host role for numerous zoonoses and human proximity. We assessed exposure and infection among white-footed mice (Peromyscus leucopus) in Connecticut, USA. We observed 1% (6/540) wild-type neutralizing antibody seroprevalence among 2020-2022 residential mice with no cross-neutralization of variants. We detected no SARS-CoV-2 infections via RT-qPCR, but identified non-SARS-CoV-2 betacoronavirus infections via pan-coronavirus PCR among 1% (5/468) of residential mice. Sequencing revealed two divergent betacoronaviruses, preliminarily named Peromyscus coronavirus-1 and -2. Both belong to the Betacoronavirus 1 species and are ~90% identical to the closest known relative, Porcine hemagglutinating encephalomyelitis virus. Low SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence suggests white-footed mice may not be sufficiently susceptible or exposed to SARS-CoV-2 to present a long-term human health risk. However, the discovery of divergent, non-SARS-CoV-2 betacoronaviruses expands the diversity of known rodent coronaviruses and further investigation is required to understand their transmission extent.

Low Antibody Titers Demonstrate Significantly Increased Rate of SARS-CoV-2 Infection in a Highly Vaccinated Population from the National Basketball Association (preprint)

SARS-CoV-2 antibody titers may serve as a correlate for immunity and could inform optimal booster timing. The relationship between antibody titer and protection from infection was evaluated in 2,323 vaccinated individuals from the National Basketball Association who had antibody levels measured from 9/12/2021 to 12/31/2021. Cox-proportional hazards models were used to estimate risk of infection within 90-days of serologic testing by titer level (<250, 250-800, and >800 AU/mL) and individuals were censored on date of booster receipt. The cohort was 78.2% male, 68.1% aged [≤] 40 years, and 56.4% vaccinated (primary series) with the Pfizer-BioNTech mRNA vaccine. Among the 2,248 individuals not yet boosted at testing, those with titers <250 AU/mL (adj HR: 2.4; 95% CI: 1.5, 3.7) and 250-800 800 AU/mL (adj HR: 1.5; 95% CI: 0.98, 2.4) had greater infection risk compared to those with titers >800 AU/mL. Serologic titers could inform individual COVID-19 risk and booster scheduling.

Age-dependent impairment in antibody responses elicited by a homologous CoronaVac booster dose (preprint)

The emergence of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron sublineages resulted in drastically increased transmission rates and reduced protection from vaccine-induced immunity. To counteract these effects, multiple booster strategies were used in different countries, although data comparing their efficiency in improving protective immunity remains sparse, especially among vulnerable populations, including older adults. The inactivated CoronaVac vaccine was among the most widely distributed worldwide, particularly in China, and South America. However, whether homologous versus heterologous booster doses in those fully vaccinated with CoronaVac induce distinct humoral responses and whether these responses vary across age groups remain unknown. We analyzed plasma antibody responses from CoronaVac-vaccinated younger or older individuals in central and south America that received a homologous CoronaVac or heterologous BNT162b2 or ChAdOx1 booster vaccines. We found that both IgG levels against SARS-CoV-2 spike or RBD, as well as neutralization titers against Omicron sublineages, were substantially reduced in participants that received homologous CoronaVac when compared to heterologous BNT162b2 or ChAdOx1 booster. This effect was specifically prominent in recipients older than 50 years of age. In this group, CoronaVac booster induced low virus-specific IgG levels and failed to elevate their neutralization titers against any omicron sublineage. Our results point to significant inefficiency in mounting protective anti-viral humoral immunity in those who were primed with CoronaVac followed by CoronaVac booster, particularly among older adults, urging a heterologous regimen in high-risk populations fully vaccinated with CoronaVac. One Sentence SummaryHomologous CoronaVac boosters do not improve neutralization responses against current VOCs in older adults in contrast to heterologous regimens.

Accelerated SARS-CoV-2 intrahost evolution leading to distinct genotypes during chronic infection (preprint)

The chronic infection hypothesis for novel SARS-CoV-2 variant emergence is increasingly gaining credence following the appearance of Omicron. Here we investigate intrahost evolution and genetic diversity of lineage B.1.517 during a SARS-CoV-2 chronic infection lasting for 471 days (and still ongoing) with consistently recovered infectious virus and high viral loads. During the infection, we found an accelerated virus evolutionary rate translating to 35 nucleotide substitutions per year, approximately two-fold higher than the global SARS-CoV-2 evolutionary rate. This intrahost evolution led to the emergence and persistence of at least three genetically distinct genotypes suggesting the establishment of spatially structured viral populations continually reseeding different genotypes into the nasopharynx. Finally, using unique molecular indexes for accurate intrahost viral sequencing, we tracked the temporal dynamics of genetic diversity to identify advantageous mutations and highlight hallmark changes for chronic infection. Our findings demonstrate that untreated chronic infections accelerate SARS-CoV-2 evolution, ultimately providing opportunity for the emergence of genetically divergent and potentially highly transmissible variants as seen with Delta and Omicron.

One Million and Counting: Estimates of Deaths in the United States from Ancestral SARS-CoV-2 and Variants (preprint)

Background: Over one million COVID-19 deaths have been recorded in the United States. Sustained global SARS-CoV-2 transmission has led to the emergence of new variants with increased transmissibility, virulence, and/or immune evasion. The specific burden of mortality from each variant over the course of the U.S. COVID-19 epidemic remains unclear. Methods: We constructed an epidemiologic model using data reported by the CDC on COVID-19 mortality and circulating variant proportions to estimate the number of recorded COVID-19 deaths attributable to each SARS-CoV-2 variant in the U.S. We conducted sensitivity analysis to account for parameter uncertainty. Findings: Of the 1,003,419 COVID-19 deaths recorded as of May 12, 2022, we estimate that 460,124 (46%) were attributable to WHO-designated variants. By U.S. Census Region, the South recorded the most variant deaths per capita (median estimate 158 per 100,000), while the Northeast recorded the fewest (111 per 100,000). Over 40 percent of national COVID-19 deaths were estimated to be caused by the combination of Alpha (median estimate 39,548 deaths), Delta (273,801), and Omicron (117,560). Interpretation: SARS-CoV-2 variants that have emerged around the world have imposed a significant mortality burden in the U.S. In addition to national public health strategies, greater efforts are needed to lower the risk of new variants emerging, including through global COVID-19 vaccination, treatment, and outbreak mitigation.

Routine Saliva Testing for SARS-CoV-2 in Children: Partnering with Childcare Centers in the Greater New Haven Community (preprint)

Background: While considerable attention was placed on SARS-CoV-2 testing and surveillance programs in the K-12 setting, younger age groups in childcare centers were largely overlooked. Childcare facilities are vital to communities, allowing parents/guardians to remain at work and providing safe environments for both children and staff. Therefore, early in the COVID-19 pandemic, we established a PCR-based COVID-19 surveillance program in childcare facilities, testing children and staff with the goal of collecting actionable public health data and aiding communities in the progressive resumption of standard operations and ways of life. In this study we describe the development of a weekly saliva testing program and provide early results from our experience implementing this in childcare centers. Methods: We enrolled children (aged 6 months to 7 years) and staff at 8 childcare facilities and trained participants in saliva collection using video chat technology. Weekly surveys were sent out to assess exposures, symptoms, and vaccination status changes. Participants submitted weekly saliva samples at school. Samples were transported to a partnering clinical laboratory for RT-PCR testing using SalivaDirect and results were uploaded to each participant's online patient portal within 24 hours. Results: This study fostered a cooperative partnership with participating childcare centers, parents/guardians, and staff with the goal of mitigating COVID-19 transmission in childcare centers. Age-related challenges in saliva collection were overcome by working with parents/guardians to conceptualize new collection strategies and by offering parents/guardians continued virtual guidance and support. Conclusion: SARS-CoV-2 screening and routine testing programs have focused less on the childcare population, resulting in knowledge gaps in this critical age group, especially as many are still ineligible for vaccination. SalivaDirect testing for SARS-CoV-2 provides a feasible method of asymptomatic screening and symptomatic testing for children and childcare center staff. Given the relative aversion to nasal swabs in the childcare age group, especially as a routine surveillance tool, an at-home saliva collection method provides an attractive alternative. Results can be shared rapidly electronically through participants' private medical chart portals, and video chat technology allows for discussion and instruction between investigators and participants.

Partial ORF1ab Gene Target Failure with Omicron BA.2.12.1 (preprint)

Mutations in the viral genome of SARS-CoV-2 can impact the performance of molecular diagnostic assays. In some cases, such as S gene target failure, the impact can serve as a unique indicator of a particular SARS-CoV-2 variant and provide a method for rapid detection. Here we describe partial ORF1ab gene target failure (pOGTF) on the cobas(R) SARS-CoV-2 assays, defined by a [≥]2 thermocycles delay in detection of the ORF1ab gene compared to the E gene. We demonstrate that pOGTF is 97% sensitive and 99% specific for SARS-CoV-2 lineage BA.2.12.1, an emerging variant in the United States with spike L452Q and S704L mutations that may impact transmission, infectivity, and/or immune evasion. Increasing rates of pOGTF closely mirrored rates of BA.2.12.1 sequences uploaded to public databases, and, importantly increasing local rates of pOGTF also mirrored increasing overall test positivity. Use of pOGTF as a proxy for BA.2.12.1 provides faster tracking of the variant than whole-genome sequencing and can benefit laboratories without sequencing capabilities.

Daily Rapid Antigen Testing in a University Setting to Inform COVID-19 Isolation Duration Policy (preprint)

ImportanceThe suitability of the currently recommended 5-day COVID-19 isolation period remains unclear in an Omicron-dominant landscape. Early data suggest high positivity via rapid antigen test beyond day 5, but evidence gaps remain regarding optimal isolation duration and the best use of limited RATs to exit isolation. ObjectiveTo determine the percentage of SARS-CoV-2 infected persons who remain positive via RAT on isolation day 5+ and assess possible factors associated with isolation duration. DesignWe evaluated daily rapid antigen test case series data from 324 persons in a managed isolation program who initially tested positive between January 1 and February 11, 2022, an Omicron-dominant period. Arrival tests and twice-weekly screening were mandated. Positive persons isolated and began mandatory daily self-testing on day 5 until testing negative. Trained staff proctored exit testing. SettingA mid-sized university in the United States. ParticipantsUniversity students in isolation. Main Outcomes and MeasuresThe percentage of persons remaining positive on isolation day 5 and each subsequent day. The association between possible prognostic factors and isolation duration as measured by event-time-ratios (ETR). ResultsWe found 47% twice-weekly screeners and 26-28% less frequent screeners remained positive on day 5, with the percentage approximately halving each additional day. Having a negative test [≥] 10 days before diagnosis (ETR 0.85 (95% CI 0.75-0.96)) and prior infection > 90 days (ETR 0.50 (95% CI 0.33-0.76)) were significantly associated with shorter isolation. Symptoms before or at diagnosis (ETR 1.13 (95% CI 1.02-1.25)) and receipt of 3 vaccine doses (ETR 1.20 (95% CI 1.04-1.39)) were significantly associated with prolonged isolation. However, these factors were associated with duration of isolation, not infection, and could reflect how early infections were detected. Conclusions and RelevanceA high percentage of university students during an Omicron-dominant period remained positive after the currently recommended 5-day isolation, highlighting possible onward transmission risk. Persons diagnosed early in their infections or using symptom onset as their isolation start may particularly require longer isolations. Significant factors associated with isolation duration should be further explored to determine relationships with infection duration. Key PointsO_ST_ABSQuestionC_ST_ABSWhat percentage of SARS-CoV-2 infected persons remain positive via rapid antigen test on days 5+ of isolation? FindingsIn this case series of 324 university students, 47% of twice-weekly screeners and 26-28% of less frequent screeners remained positive via rapid antigen on isolation day 5, with the percent still positive approximately halving with each subsequent day. MeaningWhile isolation duration decisions are complex, our study adds to growing evidence that a 5-day isolation may be 1-2 days too short to sufficiently reduce the onward transmission risk, particularly for those in dense settings or among vulnerable populations.

Rapid emergence of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant is associated with an infection advantage over Delta in vaccinated persons (preprint)

The emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants continues to shape the coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) pandemic. The detection and rapid spread of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant (lineage B.1.1.529) in Botswana and South Africa became a global concern because it contained 15 mutations in the spike protein immunogenic receptor binding domain and was less neutralized by sera derived from vaccinees compared to the previously dominant Delta variant. To investigate if Omicron is more likely than Delta to cause infections in vaccinated persons, we analyzed 37,877 nasal swab PCR tests conducted from 12-26 December 2021 and calculated the test positivity rates for each variant by vaccination status. We found that the positivity rate among unvaccinated persons was higher for Delta (5.2%) than Omicron (4.5%). We found similar results in persons who received a single vaccine dose. Conversely, our results show that Omicron had higher positivity rates than Delta among those who received two doses within five months (Omicron = 4.7% vs. Delta = 2.6%), two doses more than five months ago (4.2% vs. 2.9%), and three vaccine doses (2.2% vs. 0.9%). Our estimates of Omicron positivity rates in persons receiving one or two vaccine doses were not significantly lower than unvaccinated persons but were 49.7% lower after three doses. In comparison, the reduction in Delta positivity rates from unvaccinated to 2 vaccine doses was 45.6-49.6% and to 3 vaccine doses was 83.2%. Despite the higher positivity rates for Omicron in vaccinated persons, we still found that 91.2% of the Omicron infections in our study occurred in persons who were eligible for 1 or more vaccine doses at the time of PCR testing. In conclusion, escape from vaccine-induced immunity likely contributed to the rapid rise in Omicron infections.

Viral dynamics and duration of PCR positivity of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant (preprint)

Background. The Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant is responsible for a major wave of COVID-19, with record case counts reflecting high transmissibility and escape from prior immunity. Defining the time course of Omicron viral proliferation and clearance is crucial to inform isolation protocols aiming to minimize disease spread. Methods. We obtained longitudinal, quantitative RT-qPCR test results using combined anterior nares and oropharyngeal samples (n = 10,324) collected between July 5th, 2021 and January 10th, 2022 from the National Basketball Association's (NBA) occupational health program. We quantified the fraction of tests with PCR cycle threshold (Ct) values <30, chosen as a proxy for potential infectivity and antigen test positivity, on each day after first detection of suspected and confirmed Omicron infections, stratified by individuals detected under frequent testing protocols and those detected due to symptom onset or concern for contact with an infected individual. We quantified the duration of viral proliferation, clearance rate, and peak viral concentration for individuals with acute Omicron and Delta variant SARS-CoV-2 infections. Results. A total of 97 infections were confirmed or suspected to be from the Omicron variant and 107 from the Delta variant. Of 27 Omicron-infected individuals testing positive [≤]1 day after a previous negative or inconclusive test, 52.0% (13/25) were PCR positive with Ct values <30 at day 5, 25.0% (6/24) at day 6, and 13.0% (3/23) on day 7 post detection. Of 70 Omicron-infected individuals detected [≥]2 days after a previous negative or inconclusive test, 39.1% (25/64) were PCR positive with Ct values <30 at day 5, 33.3% (21/63) at day 6, and 22.2% (14/63) on day 7 post detection. Overall, Omicron infections featured a mean duration of 9.87 days (95% CI 8.83-10.9) relative to 10.9 days (95% CI 9.41-12.4) for Delta infections. The peak viral RNA based on Ct values was lower for Omicron infections than for Delta infections (Ct 23.3, 95% CI 22.4-24.3 for Omicron; Ct 20.5, 95% CI 19.2-21.8 for Delta) and the clearance phase was shorter for Omicron infections (5.35 days, 95% CI 4.78-6.00 for Omicron; 6.23 days, 95% CI 5.43-7.17 for Delta), though the rate of clearance was similar (3.13 Ct/day, 95% CI 2.75-3.54 for Omicron; 3.15 Ct/day, 95% CI 2.69-3.64 for Delta). Conclusions. While Omicron infections feature lower peak viral RNA and a shorter clearance phase than Delta infections on average, it is unclear to what extent these differences are attributable to more immunity in this largely vaccinated population or intrinsic characteristics of the Omicron variant. Further, these results suggest that Omicron's infectiousness may not be explained by higher viral load measured in the nose and mouth by RT-PCR. The substantial fraction of individuals with Ct values <30 at days 5 of infection, particularly in those detected due to symptom onset or concern for contact with an infected individual, underscores the heterogeneity of the infectious period, with implications for isolation policies.

Comparison of infectious SARS-CoV-2 from the nasopharynx of vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals (preprint)

The frequency of SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infections in fully vaccinated individuals increased with the emergence of the Delta variant, particularly with longer time from vaccine completion. However, whether breakthrough infections lead to onward transmission remains unclear. Here, we conducted a study involving 125 patients comprised of 72 vaccinated and 53 unvaccinated individuals, to assess the levels of infectious virus in vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals. Quantitative plaque assays showed no significant differences in the titers of virus between these cohorts. However, the proportion of nasopharyngeal samples with culturable virus was lower in the vaccinated patients relative to unvaccinated patients (21% vs. 40%). Finally, time-to-event analysis with Kaplan-Myer curves revealed that protection from culturable infectious virus waned significantly starting at 5 months after completing a 2-dose regimen of mRNA vaccines. These results have important implications in timing of booster dose to prevent onward transmission from breakthrough cases.

Immunogenicity of heterologous BNT162b2 booster in fully vaccinated individuals with CoronaVac against SARS-CoV-2 variants Delta and Omicron: the Dominican Republic Experience (preprint)

The recent emergence of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant is raising concerns because of its increased transmissibility and by its numerous spike mutations with potential to evade neutralizing antibodies elicited by COVID-19 vaccines. The Dominican Republic was among the first countries in recommending the administration of a third dose COVID-19 vaccine to address potential waning immunity and reduced effectiveness against variants. Here, we evaluated the effects of a heterologous BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine booster on the humoral immunity of participants that had received a two-dose regimen of CoronaVac, an inactivated vaccine used globally. We found that heterologous CoronaVac prime followed by BNT162b2 booster regimen induces elevated virus-specific antibody levels and potent neutralization activity against the ancestral virus and Delta variant, resembling the titers obtained after two doses of mRNA vaccines. While neutralization of Omicron was undetectable in participants that had received a two-dose regimen of CoronaVac vaccine, BNT162b2 booster resulted in a 1.4-fold increase in neutralization activity against Omicron, compared to two-dose mRNA vaccine. Despite this increase, neutralizing antibody titers were reduced by 6.3-fold and 2.7-fold for Omicron compared to ancestral and Delta variant, respectively. Surprisingly, previous SARS-CoV-2 infection did not affect the neutralizing titers for Omicron in participants that received the heterologous regimen. Our findings have immediate implications for multiples countries that previously used a two-dose regimen of CoronaVac and reinforce the notion that the Omicron variant is associated with immune escape from vaccines or infection-induced immunity, highlighting the global need for vaccine boosters to combat the impact of emerging variants.

Comparative transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 variants Delta and Alpha in New England, USA (preprint)

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Delta variant quickly rose to dominance in mid-2021, displacing other variants, including Alpha. Studies using data from the United Kingdom and India estimated that Delta was 40-80% more transmissible than Alpha, allowing Delta to become the globally dominant variant. However, it was unclear if the ostensible difference in relative transmissibility was due mostly to innate properties of Deltas infectiousness or differences in the study populations. To investigate, we formed a partnership with SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance programs from all six New England US states. By comparing logistic growth rates, we found that Delta emerged 37-163% faster than Alpha in early 2021 (37% Massachusetts, 75% New Hampshire, 95% Maine, 98% Rhode Island, 151% Connecticut, and 163% Vermont). We next computed variant-specific effective reproductive numbers and estimated that Delta was 58-120% more transmissible than Alpha across New England (58% New Hampshire, 68% Massachusetts, 76% Connecticut, 85% Rhode Island, 98% Maine, and 120% Vermont). Finally, using RT-PCR data, we estimated that Delta infections generate on average [~]6 times more viral RNA copies per mL than Alpha infections. Overall, our evidence indicates that Deltas enhanced transmissibility could be attributed to its innate ability to increase infectiousness, but its epidemiological dynamics may vary depending on the underlying immunity and behavior of distinct populations.

Variant abundance estimation for SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater using RNA-Seq quantification (preprint)

Effectively monitoring the spread of SARS-CoV-2 variants is essential to efforts to counter the ongoing pandemic. Wastewater monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 RNA has proven an effective and efficient technique to approximate COVID-19 case rates in the population. Predicting variant abundances from wastewater, however, is technically challenging. Here we show that by sequencing SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater and applying computational techniques initially used for RNA-Seq quantification, we can estimate the abundance of variants in wastewater samples. We show by sequencing samples from wastewater and clinical isolates in Connecticut U.S.A. between January and April 2021 that the temporal dynamics of variant strains broadly correspond. We further show that this technique can be used with other wastewater sequencing techniques by expanding to samples taken across the United States in a similar timeframe. We find high variability in signal among individual samples, and limited ability to detect the presence of variants with clinical frequencies <10%; nevertheless, the overall trends match what we observed from sequencing clinical samples. Thus, while clinical sequencing remains a more sensitive technique for population surveillance, wastewater sequencing can be used to monitor trends in variant prevalence in situations where clinical sequencing is unavailable or impractical.

Impact of circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants on mRNA vaccine-induced immunity in uninfected and previously infected individuals (preprint)

The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants with mutations in major neutralizing antibody-binding sites can affect humoral immunity induced by infection or vaccination (1-6). We analysed the development of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody and T cell responses in previously infected (recovered) or uninfected (naive) individuals that received mRNA vaccines to SARS-CoV-2. While previously infected individuals sustained higher antibody titers than uninfected individuals post-vaccination, the latter reached comparable levels of neutralization responses to the ancestral strain than previously infected individuals 7 days after the second vaccine dose. T cell activation markers measured upon spike or nucleocapsid peptide in vitro stimulation showed a progressive increase after vaccination in the time-points analysed. Comprehensive analysis of plasma neutralization using 16 authentic isolates of distinct locally circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants revealed a range of reduction in the neutralization capacity associated with specific mutations in the spike gene: lineages with E484K and N501Y/T (e.g., B.1.351 and P.1) had the greatest reduction, followed by lineages with L452R (e.g., B.1.617.2) or with E484K (without N501Y/T). While both groups retained neutralization capacity against all variants, plasma from previously infected vaccinated individuals displayed overall better neutralization capacity when compared to plasma from uninfected individuals that also received two vaccine doses, pointing to vaccine boosters as a relevant future strategy to alleviate the impact of emerging variants on antibody neutralizing activity.

Combining genomic and epidemiological data to compare the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 lineages (preprint)

Emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants have shaped the second year of the COVID-19 pandemic and the public health discourse around effective control measures. Evaluating the public health threat posed by a new variant is essential for appropriately adapting response efforts when community transmission is detected. However, this assessment requires that a true comparison can be made between the new variant and its predecessors because factors other than the virus genotype may influence spread and transmission. In this study, we develop a framework that integrates genomic surveillance data to estimate the relative effective reproduction number (Rt) of co-circulating lineages. We use Connecticut, a state in the northeastern United States in which the SARS-CoV-2 variants B.1.1.7 and B.1.526 co-circulated in early 2021, as a case study for implementing this framework. We find that the Rt of B.1.1.7 was 6-10% larger than that of B.1.526 in Connecticut in the midst of a COVID-19 vaccination campaign. To assess the generalizability of this framework, we apply it to genomic surveillance data from New York City and observe the same trend. Finally, we use discrete phylogeography to demonstrate that while both variants were introduced into Connecticut at comparable frequencies, clades that resulted from introductions of B.1.1.7 were larger than those resulting from B.1.526 introductions. Our framework, which uses open-source methods requiring minimal computational resources, may be used to monitor near real-time variant dynamics in a myriad of settings.